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6 Months of War in Ukraine – Economics, Endurance & the Energy War

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NOTHING IN THIS VIDEO IS FINANCIAL ADVICE

You asked for a six month update, here it is.

If one thing is clear after six months of fighting in Ukraine, it’s that there is little chance of an imminent, overwhelming battlefield victory to end the war.

Instead, the struggle has become (as expected) one of attrition and economics. A question of Russian economic resilience, matched against the will of Ukraine and its allies to carry on the fighting, and Europe’s ability to endure rapid and deep cuts in the supply of Russian energy resources.

In this 6 month update on the war, I focus not on the battlefield so much as the politics and economics of the war, and ask the question of how much pain is being inflicted, and if we should expect them to carry on in a way that winning a long war requires.

Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU

Caveats:
In top comment

Sources:
Sonnenfeld, Jeffrey and Tian, Steven and Sokolowski, Franek and Wyrebkowski, Michal and Kasprowicz, Mateusz, Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy
Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4167193

Putin hikes Russian pensions, plays down Ukraine impact on economy –
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-announces-10-hike-pensions-minimum-wage-2022-05-25/

Timeline of European Sanctions
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/history-restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/

Financing Putin’s war: Fossil fuel imports from Russia in the first 100 days of the invasion
https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/russian-fossil-exports-first-100-days

EP Spring 2022 Survey: Rallying around the European flag
https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2792

European views on the war in Ukraine:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/en/be-heard/eurobarometer/public-opinion-on-the-war-in-ukraine

Pew Research Centre – views on NATO 2007-2022
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/06/22/international-attitudes-toward-the-u-s-nato-and-russia-in-a-time-of-crisis/pg_2022-07-22_u-s-image_2-02/

Poling of Ukraine by NORC at the University of Chicago
https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_NORC_Ukraine_Poll_June_2022.pdf

Example of US survey data on Ukraine
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5c9542c8840b163998cf4804/t/62f11ac3010ae8217bd58593/1659968203055/MOTN-APMResearchLab-Ukraine%28Aug2022%29.pdf

EU Plans energy market intervention
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/eu-plans-emergency-intervention-in-energy-markets-20220830-p5be0c

Ukraine FOREX reserves
https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/foreign-exchange-reserves

Additional WB aid to Ukraine
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/08/08/world-bank-mobilizes-4-5-billion-in-additional-financing-for-vital-support-to-ukraine

Ukraine war credit holiday:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ukraines-creditors-agree-two-year-payment-freeze-almost-20-billion-international-2022-08-10/

German exports:
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/08/PE22_325_51.html

France restarting reactors https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220902-france-to-restart-all-nuclear-reactors-by-winter-amid-energy-crunch

Timestamps:

00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:55 — What Am I Covering?
00:02:53 — GROUND NEWS
00:04:27 — The War and Way Forward
00:04:44 — A War of Position
00:06:13 — Look at the Map!
00:07:40 — How Do You Win?
00:08:23 — Sanctions & the Economy
00:08:50 — The Opening Punch
00:10:37 — Adaptation & The Energy Dividend
00:12:31 — Where Are We Now? (Officially)
00:13:39 — Where Are We Now? (Actually)
00:15:43 — Statistics & Economics Intelligence 101
00:18:57 — A Moment for Perspective
00:21:21 — Import Substitution & Demand
00:24:26 — Capital Flight
00:26:24 — Stimulus & Reserves
00:29:12 — What Next?
00:30:34 — Europe, Ukraine & The USA
00:30:48 — Ukraine: The War Economy
00:33:14 — USA: Uncomfortable But Dominant
00:34:53 — Europe: Holding in There
00:36:32 — The Energy War
00:36:54 — Exposed Continent
00:38:22 — Nervous Beginnings
00:39:43 — Sanctions: Shots Fired
00:40:59 — The Squeeze
00:42:19 — European Response
00:45:27 — Responses & Options
00:50:19 — Russian Oil in the Crosshairs
00:54:17 — The Limits of Coercion
00:58:33 — The Political Dimension
01:00:33 — Political Dimension: EU
01:01:56 — EU Approval Survey
01:02:33 — Importance of UE Membership Survey
01:03:26 — Citizens’ Positive Image of the EU Survey
01:04:03 — European Support for Staying the Course
01:05:56 — Sharp Decline in Favourable Views of Russia
01:08:08 — American are Hawkish
01:11:38 — Ukraine & The Will to Resist
01:13:47 — Ukrainian Determination
01:17:00 — The Fight Will Go On
01:18:24 — Conclusions
01:19:59 — Channel Update